Only Down From Here … 2024 Fantasy Football Duds
Fantasy Football Studs that will become duds.. it happens. Every year guys fall off a cliff. Sometimes there is writing on the walls, and sometimes it comes out of nowhere. There are several players who are set up to fall from their recent rise in the past couple years. These are guys I try to skip over in my drafts especially if there is someone I like just below them on the rankings list. Here are a few I am looking over in drafts.
Raheem Mostert (MIA)
What a season Mostert had in 2023 scoring a crazy 21 touchdowns. Not only is there little chance of history repeating itself for the veteran RB, he also is in danger of losing more carries in a RB room that features Achane aand rookie Jaylen Wright. Mostert probably wouldn’t even pay off at his ADP in good health and with him being 32 years old the wheels are going to come off.
Achane is also going high in drafts and the Dolphins will use a committee in their backfield, so investing in a guy entering his age 32 season and two younger RB’s in his rear view make him a candidate to fall off a cliff in 2024. It may start ok for Mostert early on, and if you somehow take him. You must draft Jaylen Wright later on in your draft. Some school of thought is drafting Mostert and Achane with 2 early picks but that logic will put you in a bind in rounds 5-8 and you probably won’t like your roster.
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D.J. Moore (CHI)
I am avoiding DJ Moore in all of my fantasy drafts this year. Moore seemed to get going last year but a lot has changed. For one, Justin Fields is replaced by an untested rookie QB in Caleb Williams. Also there are a lot of new weapons in Chicago this season. Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Udunze will take targets away from Moore starting week 1. De’Andre Swift at RB will also take some short passes away from Moore. I’m steering clear of Moore at his current ADP and looking at drafting guys like Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf and DeVonta Smith instead.
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle was the TE6 in fantasy points per game, finishing with the third-highest receptions and receiving yards of his career, while he ranked only tenth in raw target volume. Kittle has been a staple at the TE postion but he is primed to regress this year. Added weapon in Ricky Pearsall creates another target that Shanahan will surely look to use. CMC out of the backfield since his arrival has eaten into Kittle target share. If you want week-to-week consistency, George Kittle might not be the tight end for you. Kittle will pop off here and there and have a 2 TD game and 10 catches but most weeks he won’t. I like guys like Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and Jake Ferguson to be more consistent and provide better return on their ADP.
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Justin Herbert
Herberts draft value has fallen since a sub-par 2023 and the changeover to a more conservative Jim Harbaugh. He also lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett in the offseason, and with the chargers looking to use a run first based offense it will diminish Herberts Fantasy value in 2024 . Herbert, who averaged 18.1 points per game last season, could struggle to hit that mark in 2024. I won’t be drafting Herbert in any drafts this year.
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