Draft Value!!!
Some early draft value. Right now these players are being drafted late in drafts, these guys could really return some value compared to their average draft position.
Cam Akers – Rams Running Back Cam Akers is being drafted as running back #22, 63rd overall. Akers is in line for a heavy load in a Sean McVay offense that he obviously got out of the doghouse of down the stretch putting up top 5 running back performances in the last 6 games to lead all NFL rushers. Akers has had a question mark of health over the limited time he has been in the NFL, but drafting Akers late in the 4th round, especially if you draft wide receiver heavy early on, can be a lifeline to your roster this season. Akers is a bargain value at his current price.
Khalil Herbert – Chicago running back Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery’s 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely taken over as the team’s lead back. The Bears did add D’onta Foreman to the backfield and he has been an efficient runner in his own right over the last 2 seasons. There will be a split backfield with most of the early down work going to Foreman, but if the Bears offense is as run heavy as we expect, Herbert’s return on investment as a 10th or 11th round pick could be huge. He is currently being drafted as the 104th player off the board. The Bears have the 2nd easiest schedule for running backs this season and Herbert has the explosiveness to be a fantasy flex or RB2 this year. I don’t hate drafting both running backs and playing one in my flex each week.
Brandon Aiyuk’s – the 49er wideout showed breakout potential last season, finishing as the WR15 with impressive yards per route run and route participation. Career high in yards per route run at 1.82 and 96% route participation. He was just one of six players in 2022 to run a route on at least 96% of team drop backs. Deebo Samuel is not a fixture in this offense as he was before the arrival of McCaffrey. Aiyuk is the teams #1 wide receiver and could explode this season into top 10 status in this offense. Being taken off the board at pick #81 puts him into the 7th to 8th round in your draft. He will be drafted in the 4th round next season when he explodes for 1,400 yards and 10 TD’s. Early reports from 49er camp are positive and Aiyuk is looking to take the leap in his 4th NFL season.
Mike Evans – Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans kind of fell off the cliff last year, or did he? Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. With declining metrics and an uncertain quarterback situation in Tampa Bay, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Evans this year. All being said there are some positives, Evans is still Tampa’s #1 WR and will be relied upon by Baker Mayfield in the passing game. Chris Godwin will get more catches than Evans but Evans is still a huge red zone target and should grab 7+ touchdowns this season. The Buccaneers have the 3rd easiest schedule for wide receivers this season and with an ADP of #84 Evans is a steal in the 8th round to hold down your flex spot and fill in through the bye weeks with WR1 potential. Reports are Evans has worked hard this offseason knowing he needs to step up and that’s what he plans to do!
Greg Dulcich – Denver’s rookie tight end missed the first five games of the season with a hamstring injury, but when he returned, he showed why the Broncos used a 3rd round pick on him, scoring a touchdown in his NFL debut and finishing the season with 33-411-2 in 10 games. Dulcich averaged 5.5 targets per game and drew eight or more targets in four of his 10 games. The addition of Sean Payton is going to add so much to this offense and the tight end position. Payton has produced top tight end seasons in all his years with Saints and with Dulcich’s talent he can produce a top 5 fantasy season. Dulcich is a guy I want to take shot on in the 12th or 13th round ad he’s being drafted as the 140th player off the board.
Geno Smith – Seattle’s signal caller was one of the most surprising fantasy players in 2022, finishing with 4,282 yards passing and 30 passing TDs. Smith was QB #5 and was a dual threat as he rushed for 366 yards on the ground. Smith is finally living up to his potential and he should feel even more comfortable in this offense after an offseason of work, with an upgraded offensive line adding Center Evan Brown the Seahawks will be able to protect Smith and thus improve his passing efficiency even more this year. Being drafted as the 119th player off the board in the 10th round Smith can be your QB 1 if you wait on QB this year in your draft.
Daniel Jones – The Giants QB put up a Top 10 fantasy season in 2022, ranking 15th in passing yards and 14th in pass attempts. Last year, Brian Daboll was willing to speed up the offense late in the season as the wide receivers and offense became more comfortable in the offense. In Weeks 12-18, the Giants were eighth in neutral script pace and 12th in neutral passing rate. Jones is also a threat on the ground rushing for over 700 and 7 touchdowns in 2022. With the added passing volume this season and the question mark surrounding Barkely, Jones will be the guy the Giants rely upon to move the ball through the air efficiently. When Barkley is back before week 1, which I fully anticipate, Jones will be even more effective with defenses not being able to try and key in on stopping the passing game. Even in the case defenses have success against the pass Jones’ rushing ability would make him an even bigger steal if he adds to 708 rushing yards from a year ago.
